UK Fave Heat Fave will cause 570 deaths until the end of the weekend

It is expected that about 570 people in England and Wales will die as a result of high temperatures from Thursday, June 19, 2025 to Sunday, June 22, 2025, fast research was estimated.

This is the first real -time analysis in 2025 on excessive heat deaths by scientists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London.

In the study, he uses the decades of British data to understand risk relations in 34,753 areas in England and Wales to predict excessive mortality during this heat waves.

In general, it is expected that during the heat wave it is expected that about 570 deaths will occur during a heat wave, from 114 on Thursday, 152 on Friday, 266 on Saturday, when temperatures above 32 ° C and 37 excessive deaths on Sunday, when they fall until the mid -1920s.

People over 65 people are expected to be the most difficult and 488 estimated excessive deaths. It is expected that 314 will be among people aged 85 and older, scientists discovered. The result shows how thermal waves can be fatal to people under the basis of health conditions, such as heart problems, diabetes and breathing problems, because high temperatures expose additional stress to their and so handicapped immune systems, the scientists say. However, they warn that heat can become life-threatening for all age groups, because 82 deaths are estimated for people in the age range 0-64.

The analysis also showed that London is to have the largest number of excessive deaths from 129, followed by West Midlands with 106 deaths and south -east of 81. The difference is mainly due to the place where heat is the most extreme. However, scientists say that people living in areas without areas can experience higher heat -related deaths because they have worse health, apartments and health care.

An increase in only degree or two can be a difference between life and death. When temperatures pusher next to the boundaries of the population acclimatized, excessive deaths can increase very quickly.

A large number of excessive deaths would probably not have no climate change. Further tests will be required to obtain an estimate.

Apparently a warmer climate is a more dangerous atmosphere. Each part of the degree of insulation will cause more admission to the hospital and heat deaths, increasing NHS. “

Professor Antonio Gasparrini, Ehm-Lab cable in LSHTM

Dr. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, lecturer at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London said:

“Thermal waves are quiet killers – people who lose their lives usually have previously existing health conditions and heat was rarely mentioned as the cause of death.”

“This real -time analysis reveals a hidden number of thermal waves and we want it to help raise the alarm.”

“Waves of heat are an underestimated threat in Great Britain and are becoming dangerous due to climate change. This weekend people must follow persistent tips and check older people, especially those living alone.”

Dr. Malcolm Mistra, assistant professor at LSHTM, said:

“Our examination should be treated as a warning. Exposure to temperatures in the high or low 30s may not seem dangerous, but may be fatal, especially for people over 65 years old, infants, pregnant people and people with previously existing health conditions.

“While effective soothing and adaptive agents are not introduced in the coming years, the risk of large death events associated with the heat will increase in Great Britain – we have a large aging population, and the warming will increase to 2 ° C to 2050 and by as much as 3 ° C at this age.”

This assessment emphasizes how extreme heat poses a growing threat to public health in Great Britain and occurs after a study published on Friday, which found that the heat wave about 10 times more likely and 2-4 ° C more warmer due to climate change.

This week, Great Britain has experienced intensive and lasting heat. On Tuesday, the British Health Safety Agency issued a yellow emergency service about thermal health to warn sensitive populations against health threats that create increasing temperatures. On Thursday on Thursday, the situation increased with a more serious amber covering all England, warning against “growth of death”. Shortly afterwards, dozens of people required treatment of the disease associated with heat in the Royal ASCOT races when temperatures exceeded above 29 ° C.

To estimate how many additional deaths can occur at hot temperatures from Thursday to Sunday, scientists used the findings of published research on the relationship between heat and the number of daily deaths, regardless of the cause, in 34,753 small areas in England and Wales. They combined these risk features with high -resolution weather forecasts from Copernicus to estimate how many heat -related deaths will occur for four days in June.

Estimates of 570 deaths are in line with the previous study assessing almost 1,100 deaths during the extreme heat wave on July 17-19, 2022, when temperatures reached 40 ° C in Great Britain, scientists say. They also note that the analysis does not take into account the impact of the heat wave occurring in early summer before people are acclimatized to hot temperatures, which means that heat death can be underestimated.

The climate change, caused primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, has already been shown, causes a large increase in the number of heat -related deaths. For example, according to research, about 56% of 68,000 heat -related deaths during the European summer was caused by climate change. Discoveries reflect how a slight increase in heat can cause a huge increase in the number of deaths, when hot temperatures push people to their physiological limit, scientists say.

Scientists say that a large number of excessive deaths in Great Britain would not occur without heat growth through climate change – temperatures are about 2-4 ° C more warmer, informed on Friday the weather. However, they say that it is unlikely that the number of deaths related to climate change would be higher than 50%, as stated in Europe, where populations are sensitive and the intensity of heat waves increases faster than in Great Britain.

The recent report of the British Commission for Climate Change estimated that heat -related deaths may increase to over 10,000 in the average year to 2050, if the ongoing combustion of fossil fuels means that insulation reaches 2 ° C.